Do better: compare alternatives under their whole range of possible outcomes, before making fundamental decisions
Informally known as “S-Curves”, these lines (which represent all the values that a variable or a result can adopt for each level of inverse cumulative probability) are particularly useful to compare; different projects, different technical approaches or different locations of the same project. As we descend on the “Y” axis, the probability of occurrence is […]
The history of Decision Quality (DQ) and Decision Analysis (DA)
Decision Quality (DQ) and Decision Analysis (DA) are transformative tools propelling organizations towards excellence, equipping leaders to navigate complexity, embrace uncertainties, and ensure sustainable growth. Let´s delve into the origins, evolution, advantages, and practical applications of DQ and DA, to redefine the art of decision-making for today’s visionary leaders. Pioneering Insights: The Genesis and Evolution […]
A possible starting point?
Have you ever tried to measure the potential value of enhancing your company’s strategic decisions systematically? Wondering about the starting point, skillset, and relative importance compared to other initiatives? The subject is as fascinating as extensive and benefited from the contributions of numerous experts that devoted their life to disciplines such as Decision Quality and […]
Are you sure a spreadsheet is good enough?
Have you ever suspected that gut feelings and lots of spreadsheets full of data might not be enough to support critical investment decisions in contexts of uncertainty? If you did, you were right. Why? Because: A single deterministic case, assuming values for each key variable, simply neglects the risks Additional low and a high cases […]
The fundamentals of Decision Quality
3D Management – Adding the third dimension to your decision making process
Probabilistics can be seen as “a dimension”. A new dimension you and your team can add to the analysis. With a full probabilistic model, the outcomes of any technical or economic analysis are not points or curves but ranges. Because to make great decisions you need to anticipate all the ways in which the business […]
Think about…
Almost surely you make your most critical personal decisions based on statistics, right? Although the price is important, you will never choose to fly an airline that fails to land safely and on schedule 25% of the time. It is true that your next trip could also end badly in the other company that has […]
The importance of “framing”
A well structured “problem framing” session will allow the team to better understand and define the business opportunity at hand before jumping too early into “solutions mode”. Only after clearly identifying the true boundaries of the “decision space” will the team be able to explore options. Without proper framing, the project team might leave significant […]