Have you ever suspected that gut feelings and lots of spreadsheets full of data might not be enough to support critical investment decisions in contexts of uncertainty?
If you did, you were right. Why? Because:
A single deterministic case, assuming values for each key variable, simply neglects the risks
Additional low and a high cases are meaningless unless they can be associated with a probability of occurrence
Only when the whole range of possible outcomes becomes visible, the probability of occurrence of any single (or a range of them) can be calculated as the relation with the total number. However…
The effort to manually generate all the possible cases, based on all the possible combinations is unbearable
