Almost surely you make your most critical personal decisions based on statistics, right? Although the price is important, you will never choose to fly an airline that fails to land safely and on schedule 25% of the time. It is true that your next trip could also end badly in the other company that has a tiny 0,25% negative record. But that will be very improbable and attributable to mere bad luck… Besides that highly unlikely bad outcome, choosing the safer airline would definitely be the right decision…
Then, why shouldn’t you benefit from making the same kind of sound decisions in your company? Backing them up on statistics and probabilities… Why wouldn’t you use the best available systems to decide? Sure, a spreadsheet with a low, a mid and a high case and several assumptions is better than evaluating a business on the back of an envelope and is considered the standard by many. But it’s not enough. You suspect there is a more professional way and we know it for sure. Because without an educated guess of the probability of occurrence of each of the possible cases under consideration, the figures are almost meaningless. Would you assume that the chances to win big, just break even or lose millions are equal and 33,33% each? What are your gut feelings?
Full probabilistic modelling, simulation and evaluation IS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE nowadays and shouldn’t cost a fortune. Particularly when comparing it with the significant value it can create.
Based on a well proven technology, at dScerner, we have developed a powerful dedicated software that allows to represent and study projects and businesses of any kind, in any industry, in an agile and reliable way. Particularly recommended when significant investments are to be done, in long-term or complex initiatives, in contexts of uncertainty. Whether to launch a product or not, to expand a plant or not, to select a technology or a commercial concept, or to invest heavily in a new venture.
dScerner provides an intuitive environment where analysts with any professional background (and by no means experience in programming) can easily create objects and rules, characterise them and automatically run as many simulations as needed to explore the whole range of possible outcomes. So, the next time you make a key decision, you and your team are fully conscious of the associated risks and upsides. (Essentially you will be able to see the continuous probability distribution of any defined result – NPV, IRR, payoff, max capital exposure, etc. for all strategies considered in the study.)
Interested in systematically improving the quality of your decisions? Learn more in our website´s “Knowledge picks” https://dscerner.com/, or contact us via email at info@dscener.com.
Together with well proven Decision Analysis methodologies, Full Probabilistic Modelling & Simulation is currently used by hundreds of leading companies in the energy, pharma and infrastructure sectors to systematically improve the quality of key investment decisions in contexts of uncertainty.